Pres. Trump’s grandiose redevelopment scheme for the Gaza Strip has been greeted with some applause on the Right and much appropriate consternation, condemnation and mockery from everywhere else. For example, the New Jewish Narrative is “Unequivocally Opposed.” And Gazans should be forgiven for rejecting yet another round of enforced exile, a second Nakba.
The leaders of Egypt and Jordan are trying to tip-toe around it, appearing to be cooperative without being compliant. Bret Stephens, a former editor of the Jerusalem Post who primarily works now as a center-right columnist for the NY Times, neither embraces nor condemns Trump’s bombast, but tries to build upon it (“The Horror Show of Hamas Must End Now“):
The administration should give the region a choice between two possible options. One is that Gazan civilians leave the territory, principally to neighboring Egypt, so that Hamas and its labyrinth of tunnels can more thoroughly be destroyed by a renewed Israeli offensive without risk to innocent life. Israel should not reoccupy the Strip, and the return of those civilians to Gaza must never be closed off. But it should also depend on those civilians forswearing allegiance to Hamas, along with a de-Hamasification program for Gaza that bars former Hamas members from any positions of power and that publicly exposes their apparatus of repression against ordinary Gazans.
The second option is that Hamas’s chieftains be pressured by their patrons into exile, so that Gazans might rebuild their lives under better leadership. This is what happened in 1982 when the Palestine Liberation Organization leader Yasir Arafat and his minions were forced out of Lebanon to exile in Tunis. Exile is much better than Hamas’s cruel rulers deserve, but it’s an option that spares a lot of bloodshed.
But Hamas Endures
Ending Hamas rule should definitely have been an objective of the international community from Day 1. I had hoped that the war would end with Hamas taking the kind of exit ramp devised for Arafat and the PLO trapped in Beirut in 1982. Antony Blinken even indicated in his NY Times exit interview that they were offered but rejected such an option. The belated goal of Netanyahu’s government to “destroy” Hamas, after spending years attempting to buy it off with Qatari cash and sustain it as a competitor to PLO/Fatah rule over the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, has proven elusive, and possibly illusory. If Israel’s victory is measured by Hamas’s destruction, the disturbing sight of neatly uniformed and apparently well-fed Hamas gunmen triumphantly handing off their hostages to the Red Cross loudly proclaims Israel’s failure.
In a more “normal” humanitarian crisis created by a catastrophic war situation, such as has happened numerous times in Africa or with the Rohingya fleeing to Bangladesh, neighboring countries host refugees in camps, sustained with some difficulty by international aid organizations. None of these places are pleasant, and some are woefully under-resourced. But for the most part, refugees survive; they are fed, sheltered and provided with a modicum of medical and educational services.
According to the NY TImes, “Egypt has now taken in at least 100,000 Palestinian medical evacuees and other people who fled Gaza.” Last year, Haaretz reporter Shlomi Eldar found and interviewed a number of Gazan refugees he had known in earlier, happier times; they had apparently bribed their way into Egypt early in this war.
We know that housing masses of new Palestinian refugees in Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries would be politically difficult, even impossible, but it would have saved many lives. If they could be resettled temporarily in other countries while Gaza is rebuilt, that would be good — but again, unlikely for the same political reasons. And who could blame Palestinians for being unwilling to go, not trusting that they’d be allowed back — even without Trump having carelessly shot off his mouth as he did?
A Way Out?
I’d hate to see a full return to “intense fighting,” as Netanyahu has threatened. The ceasefire deal, iffy from its inception, given that Netanyahu’s government has to order a complete IDF withdrawal in Phase 2 — without, manifestly, having destroyed Hamas — may be called off at any moment. It would be nice if, as reported, this plan could be implemented:
An Egyptian real estate tycoon, Hisham Talaat Moustafa, who like Mr. Trump has developed a chain of residential properties and hotels, went on an evening news show on Sunday to outline a $20 billion proposal for building 200,000 housing units in Gaza, as if trying to talk to Mr. Trump developer to developer.
But Mr. Moustafa, who is closely linked to the Egyptian president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, said he envisioned reconstructing Gaza without moving any Palestinians out of the strip.
My dream scenario would be the imposition of moderate Arab forces and funding to oversee reconstruction and to shepherd in governance under a reformed Palestinian Authority, with the ultimate goal of negotiating peace with Israel. There must be credible buy-in by multiple parties concerned, not least being Israel and the PA.
According to Michael Koplow in his latest column for the Israel Policy Forum, the PA made an important first step in ending its prisoner and martyr payments system, what Israelis often deride as “pay to slay.” Koplow urges Israel to respond positively to this development, but predictably, Netanyahu’s government has done the opposite, calling it “fraudulent.”
So there is a way out, but it would be tricky, and still likely requires a new Israeli government. And if Hamas reimposes its dictatorial rule over Gaza, promising to endlessly repeat attacks such as on that fateful October 7th, all bets are off.